28 April 2016: The UN Economic and Social Survey for Asia and the Pacific 2016 calls for broad-based productivity gains, especially in agriculture, as well as higher and well-targeted fiscal spending, better infrastructure, and access to lifelong learning to counter the challenges of the global economic slowdown.
The annual survey is the flagship publication of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). The 2016 report forecasts a marginal increase in economic growth in 2016 and 2017 to 4.8% and 5% respectively, from an estimated 4.6% in 2015. It also outlines macroeconomic risks for the region, including the uncertain outlook for China’s economy, weak consumption and investment trends, and volatile exchange rates.
Launching the survey in Bangkok, Thailand, ESCAP Executive Secretary Shamshad Akhtar called on governments to revive the region’s previous economic dynamism and improve the quality of growth by making it more inclusive and sustainable, based on fiscal measures to support domestic demand and strengthen the foundations for productivity-led growth.
The authors report that growth in productivity has declined in recent years, after having improved significantly since the 1990s. They emphasize the importance of productivity growth in addressing poverty and inequality, suggesting that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) could provide an entry point to strengthen productivity. For example, improvements in agricultural productivity could be at the center of the focus to end poverty in Goal 1, as well as ending hunger and achieving food security in Goal 2. While governments must be active in providing the necessary “cushion” to accommodate the surplus labor that will be freed up from the agricultural sector, training and lifelong learning (Goal 4) can be the route to full and productive employment (Goal 8).
The survey includes an analysis of five Asia-Pacific subregions, and a set of policy recommendations for boosting productivity growth. It estimates that a modest increase in agricultural productivity coupled with strategies to absorb the surplus labor that would be released in that sector could lift an additional 110 million people out of poverty by 2030. The report also highlights the need for: reforms towards an efficient and fair tax system to raise the revenue needed to improve infrastructure and meet the expectations of a rising middle class in Southeast Asia; improving female labor participation in South and Southwest Asia; addressing population aging in East and Northeast Asia; and enhancing resilience to natural disasters in the Pacific.
An update to the Survey will be published in November 2016. [Publication: Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2016] [Report Webpage] [ESCAP Press Release]