21 November 2014: Through a joint press release, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) have warned that extreme weather conditions predicted for the Pacific Ocean pose a significant threat for the industry and infrastructure of island States, and encourages establishing a regional mechanism for better preparedness.

The warning notes that forecasts indicate the onset of an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters, also known as the El Niño effect, as the Pacific region experiences its wet season during the next six months.

The climatic changes, which will see both increased and decreased rainfall, depending on the location, are expected to threaten vulnerable sectors, such as agriculture, freshwater resources, reef ecosystems, fisheries, public health and infrastructure.

Shamika Sirimanne, Director, ESCAP’s Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, said the location of Pacific Islands means that they are often described as disaster ‘hotspots’ and their remoteness and economic fragility add to their vulnerability to shocks.

The warning explains that El Niño will be associated with irregular rainfall in the Pacific, although effects are expected to vary across the region within each country, with the northern parts experiencing increased rainfall and the southern parts experiencing a decrease. Reduced rainfall could impact subsistence agriculture, causing a loss of cash income and reducing people’s ability to support themselves, particularly in Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji.

The likelihood of cyclones and severe storms for the Marshall Islands, the Cook Islands, Tuvalu, Samoa, Niue and Fiji is predicted to increase by 30% as ocean temperatures temporarily increase. To monitor such risks, ESCAP recommends establishing a regional mechanism to make climate information more readily available to support better preparedness and resilient development planning.

ESCAP adds that strengthening early warning systems and multi-stakeholder platforms for risk communication would lead to: increased understanding of long-term risks; harmonization of risk management strategies; and development plans of countries in the region.

RIMES is an international and intergovernmental institution, owned and managed by its member States, for the generation and application of early warning information. [ESCAP Press Release] [UN Press Release]