Scientists participating in the El Niño 2015 Conference noted that forecasts of, and preparedness for, the impacts of the 2015 El Niño event have improved.
They called on decision makers to take action based on these improved forecasts, stressing that enhanced preparedness is highly dependent on action at the local level.
18 November 2015: Scientists participating in the El Niño 2015 Conference noted that forecasts of, and preparedness for, the impacts of the 2015 El Niño event have improved. They called on decision makers to take action based on these improved forecasts, stressing that enhanced preparedness is highly dependent on action at the local level.
Jointly organized by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the US Agency for International Development (USAid) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Conference aimed to provide an overview of the 2015 El Niño event and its potential impacts, explore its connection with global change, foster dialogue between climate scientists and development practitioners for enhanced preparedness action, and examine progress in climate services related to El Niño.
Participants found that preparedness for the 2015 El Niño event has improved due better climate models and increasing capacities of institutions and the private sector to generate and interpret forecasts supported by greater awareness of El Niño and its potential impacts across society. Highlighting the improved confidence in forecasting, participants called on decision makers at all levels to take action based on forecasts, noting the particular importance of action at the local level for increased climate resilience.
The Conference also noted that, while the current El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest events on record, it cannot be compared to previous events as impacts will depend on many other variables, including other climate factors, increased population densities, and other socioeconomic factors. Participants further underlined that El Niño contributes to 2015 being the warmest year in record, noting that El Niño events take place in a continuously warming climate and that their impacts are exacerbated by climate change.
The Conference, which took place from 17-18 November 2015, in Palisades, New York, US, was preceded by the publication of the latest WMO update on El Niño, which expects the current event to strengthen further by the end of the year, making to one of the three strongest events since 1950. [El Niño 2015 Conference Website and Webcast] [IRI El Niño Resources Webpage][WMO Press Release] [WMO El Nino Update] [UN Press Release] [Conference Agenda]