25 August 2016
Draft Outline for IPCC Special Report on Impacts of 1.5°C Warming Agreed
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Approximately 85 experts and members of the Bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have produced a draft outline for the ‘Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty.'

IPCC18 August 2016: Approximately 85 experts and members of the Bureau of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have produced a draft outline for the ‘Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty.’

The outline and structure of the Special Report on the impacts of 1.5°C warming were discussed during a scoping meeting that convened from 15-18 August 2016, in Geneva, Switzerland. Addressing the meeting, IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said the report will provide input to the global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, and “is not intended to replicate a comprehensive IPCC regular assessment report.” He explained that the availability of scientific literature must be considered.

IPCC Vice-Chair Thelma Krug said that 600 nominations had been submitted, from which around 80 experts were selected to deliver the outcomes of the scoping meeting. She cautioned that the proposed outline that will be submitted to the Panel will face a “difficult and complex approval process” and could change significantly.

Krug emphasized a focus on the differential implications of 1.5°C warming relative to 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, and consideration of the other reports that will be prepared during the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assessment cycle in order to avoid overlap. She also underscored the uniqueness of the report to the IPCC, its importance for policymakers to take decisions, and its expected completion by 2018 in order to feed into the facilitative dialogue that will take stock of collective progress under the Paris Agreement. She emphasized the report will, inter alia: include multidisciplinary dialogue and interdisciplinary integration, including a greater role for the social sciences; build on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) that addressed global emission pathways likely to limit warming to below 2°C; and concentrate on new scientific knowledge.

The draft outline includes proposed chapters, with suggested content for each in bullet point format. The outline will be posted on the IPCC website by mid-September as part of the documentation for the 44th session of the IPCC (IPCC 44), to be held in Bangkok, Thailand, from 17-20 October 2016. The outline will be subject to modification prior to final approval by the IPCC, after which the final outline will be published, a press conference will be held and a call for nominations for report authors will be announced.

The IPCC was invited by the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) to the UNFCCC to prepare the Special Report. IPCC 43, held in April 2016, accepted the COP’s invitation. The Special Report will be delivered in 2018, and is being developed under the joint scientific leadership of all three IPCC Working Groups.

Following the scoping meeting, the IPCC Bureau met from 18-19 August 2016, and discussed, among other things: a recommended title for the Special Report; preparations for drafting the outline of the Methodology Report to refine the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories; and implementation of the policy to promote developing country participation in IPCC activities.

The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle, during which the Panel will produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report on national GHG inventories and the AR6, which is expected to be completed in 2022. [IPCC Press Release] [Scoping Meeting Agenda] [Scoping Meeting Background Document] [Special Report on 1.5°C Webpage] [IPCC Facebook Page]


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