August 2011: The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) has released a new report suggesting that if temperatures increase as expected by 2050, some of Uganda’s most productive areas will face significant declines.

The report brings together 18 climate and two crop models and examines impacts on areas of 60,000 farmers that support up to half a million people. Warmer areas at low altitudes will be the most likely to be impacted, and Uganda will be more severely impacted than neighboring Kenya. The report assesses additional crop impacts including cassava, banana, pineapple, maize, passion fruit and citrus fruit, noting that all but banana will be severely impacted by 2050 across the region. It notes, however, the uncertainty of farming systems and that there may be approaches to adapt to changing climate, for example through more resilient varieties of crops. [CIAT News Release]