24 February 2016
CIAT Highlights Climate Change Impacts on Beans in Central America
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Researchers from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), have published a study titled 'Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model.' The study evaluates the effects of climate change on bean production in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, concluding that future climate change may threaten the production of drybeans.

ciat_ccafs8 February 2016: Researchers from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), have published a study, titled ‘Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model.’ The study evaluates the effects of climate change on bean production in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, concluding that future climate change may threaten the production of drybeans.

According to CIAT, dry beans are the common beans that are left in the pod to dry prior to harvesting. Climate change impacts on drybeans are projected to jeopardize thousands of smallholder farmers’ food security by opening a 300-kilometer “dry corridor” reaching from Lake Nicaragua to Central Honduras.

The “dry corridor” is characterized by an estimated 10-38% decrease in yields. Some areas, including the Guatemalan highlands and southern Nicaragua, are expected to see a 10-41% increase in yields. The research shows that some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops and practices, which will require external support. According to the study, research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt, and provide policy makers with strategies to implement them.

The study identifies three geographic areas where the effects of climate change on drybean production will be felt differently, namely adaptation spots, hotspots and pressure spots. Hotspots extend to regions in the “dry corridor,” which are expected to experience severe impacts that may necessitate the production of different crops or force farmers from the area unless drought-tolerant bean varieties are introduced.

Farmers in adaptations spots are expected to be able to continue to grow drybeans if certain adjustments are made, including the introduction of more suitable varieties and different growing practices.

It is anticipated that pressure spots may, on the one hand, create new opportunities for bean production, increasing drybean yields. On the other hand, some of these areas are forests, which not only provide important ecosystem services, such as freshwater, but also lack the necessary infrastructure.

The study was published with support from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and Catholic Relief Services. Its findings highlight another threat to agriculture in Central America, following a 2015 study that found that up to 80% of areas producing Arabica coffee will become unsuitable by 2035 due to the effects of climate change. [Publication: Assessing High-impact Spots of Climate Change: Spatial Yield Simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Model] [CIAT Blog Post] [IISDRS Story on Climate Change Impacts on Coffee Production]

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