4 May 2015: The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), has published a study, titled ‘Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change.’ The study focuses on how, by 2050, climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee within current production regions.

According to the report, some of the major coffee producing countries will suffer serious losses, reducing supplies and driving up prices, as the global temperatures rise by 2-2.5°C over the next few decades. The study predicts that Brazil, Viet Nam, Indonesia and Colombia, which currently hold 65% of the global market share of Arabica coffee, will experience severe losses unless steps are taken to change the genetics of the crops, and the manner and areas in which it is grown.

Peter Läderach, a CCAFS climate change specialist and co-author of the report, emphasized that while some countries would be able to mitigate the “massive impact” of climate change by moving their coffee to higher, cooler areas, countries like El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras with steep hills and volcanoes, would “lose out.” At the same time, without new strategies, current Arabica production in Brazil alone is expected to drop by 25% by 2050 as there are no mountains in the country to move coffee production up to.

Läderach also raised concerns over the impacts of relocating coffee production on the preservation of forests, nature reserves and national parks, as well as indigenous communities and biodiverse environments. He pointed out that while developing hardier coffee strains, planting in more shade and encouraging farmers to grow other crops would help compensate for the losses associated with climate change, farmers, scientists, governments and businesses would need to work together to meet the challenges lying ahead. [World Agroforestry Centre Press Release] [Publication: Coffee Catastrophe Beckons as Climate Change Threatens Arabica Plant] [Publication: Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change]