30 October 2015: The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), one of the six Working Groups of the Arctic Council, has released its assessment report on methane as a climate forcer. The report concludes that methane mitigation can complement action on carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation in reducing Arctic warming, and contribute to reducing the potential of increased methane emissions from natural terrestrial and marine sources in the Arctic due to a warming climate.

The report, titled ‘AMAP Assessment 2015: Methane as an Arctic Climate Forcer,’ assesses the potential benefits that mitigation of methane emissions in Arctic countries could have with regard to reduced Arctic warming, and compares the potential emissions reductions from anthropogenic sources to potential changes in methane emissions from natural sources in the Arctic. It complements a second assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone as climate forcers in the Arctic.

The first section of the report provides the background on the Arctic climate context, including an updated estimate of recent observed Arctic warming and potential future warming trends, followed by an overview of the global methane budget, including natural and anthropogenic methane sources and the role of methane in radiative forcing. The next section provides a detailed review of the available science and data on natural terrestrial and marine methane sources in the Arctic, as well as current and projected future emissions from anthropogenic sources. The last group of chapters covers the state of monitoring and modeling of atmospheric methane, and modeling climate response.

The report finds that further research and monitoring is necessary to address uncertainties in estimating future methane emissions from terrestrial and marine Arctic sources, noting that emissions from terrestrial emissions can be estimated to increase by 50%, whereas marine emissions are also projected to increase substantially.

Regarding the benefits of methane emissions mitigation, the authors find that global methane-specific mitigation could reduce Arctic warming by 10-15% up to 2050, whereas mitigation action by Arctic countries only would reduce Arctic warming by a few tenths of a degree. The report further concludes that methane mitigation can complement action on CO2 to reduce the potential for increased methane release from natural sources. [Publication: AMAP Assessment 2015: Methane as an Arctic Climate Forcer][AMAP website][Arctic Council website]