10 July 2017: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) released the publication, titled ‘OECD-FAO World Agriculture Outlook 2017-2026.’ The report forecasts that global prices for major food commodities will remain low through 2026 due to replenished food crop reserves and slowing demand growth.

The report states that 2016 saw record production and abundant stocks for most commodities, leading to declining world market prices for cereals, meats and dairy products. The publication estimates that food demand growth will slow over the coming decade, mainly due to a reduction in demand growth for meat and dairy products in China, which accounted for the majority of increased meat and feed consumption in past years.

Aquaculture will drive fish production as capture fisheries remain flat because of biological limits and fisheries regulation.

The Outlook expects future cereal production increases to depend mainly on yield increases. In the case of maize, increases from agricultural land expansion are expected to account for only 10% of rising production. The report expects aquaculture to drive fish production as capture fisheries will remain flat because of biological limits and fisheries regulation. Meat and dairy production, on the other hand, is estimated to increase both through higher productivity per animal and larger herds.

By 2026, the average calories available per person is expected to reach 2,450 kcal per day in least developed countries and exceed 3,000 kcal per day in other developing countries. At the same time, the report warns that problems of malnutrition will persist due to problems of access and the rising co-existence of all forms of malnutrition in many countries.

The Outlook’s special section focuses on Southeast Asia, which has experienced rapid growth in its agriculture and fisheries sectors, resulting in a significant reduction in food insecurity and undernourishment. On the other hand, the rapid expansion is increasing pressure on natural resources and limiting the scope for future growth in export commodities, especially palm oil and farmed fish. The report recommends, therefore, that these countries invest in research and development and improved resource management.

The World Agricultural Outlook is published annually. It provides a medium-term outlook for agricultural and fish commodity markets at national, regional and global levels, based on consensus assessments. [OECD-FAO Press Release] [Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Web-portal] [Report Summary]